Just eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were an indicator or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A reversion to average could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
