A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
